Receivers that are getting eight or more targets per game are some of the top wide receivers. On a per-game basis, you can see how often a receiver is used.
Receptions are just another word for catches, and if you are playing in PPR leagues, receptions are something that can really help out a wide receiver in fantasy scoring. Everything after this is going to be what they are doing with those targets. Sorting through, you are going to see what wide receivers are getting used the most. targets are the big stat to sort, as they will show how much volume a receiver is getting. That's a little less than we saw with the overachievers (5.4%), but this also tracks.Unlike some of the other positions, wide receivers are pretty limited to just receiving stats, and possibly some small rushing numbers. Of them, 75.5% increased their touchdown rate the following season, and the sample did so by an average of 1.9 points back to the position average level (4.5%). On the flip side, we have 53 players fall short by 2.0 expected scores. These are (or were for one season, at least) elite touchdown scorers, and while their touchdown rate fell back toward the NFL average (again, 4.8%), they still were a tick above.
Nfl receiving touchdown leaders full#
The full 65-receiver sample fell by an average of 4.1 percentage points (back down to a sample average of 5.4%). So, they effectively just stayed the same and certainly didn't build on it much at all. Those that did - Adam Thielen in 2020, Mike Evans in 2021, and Stefon Diggs in 2019 - did so by 0.5 percentage points or fewer. Of those 65 overachievers, only 3 (or 4.6%) increased their touchdown rate the following season. This group had an average touchdown rate (receiving touchdowns per target) of 9.0% (nearly double the position average of 4.8%). If we look at players with at least 35 targets in a season and at least 35 targets in a follow-up season since 2016, we get 389 receiver seasons to examine.Īmong those 389 seasons, we see 65 instances in which a receiver scored at least 2.0 more touchdowns than the combined model suggested he should've. If you (or me - I'll do it for us) were to average out expected touchdown totals from yardage and Reception NEP (which are quite close to one another but not exact) and compare it to a player's actual output, you can find touchdowns over expectation (or touchdowns below expectation if the model says they should have scored more often than they actually did in a given season). We can then use a model from there to find expected touchdowns (one based on yards and one based on Reception NEP and then average them out) and compare them to actual touchdowns scored. That R^2 climbs to 76.2% if we compare receiving touchdowns to our Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which accounts for things like field position. That just means receiving yardage explains more than 70% of touchdown output. Mathematically speaking, the R^2 between yardage and touchdowns among receivers since 2016 is 70.5%. After all, it's not like we see 10-touchdown seasons from guys with 300 yards and 1,400 yards from guys with no red zone role. If you know a player's receiving yardage output, you - generally - know a good deal about his touchdown output. I'll keep this brief, but here's how I'm looking at things. If you don't care about the process or its accuracy, just skip ahead to the results. Here are the biggest touchdown regression candidates among wide receivers for 2022. And, of course, there are always productive players from a yardage standpoint who just don't score much in a 17-game season (whether it's randomness or their offense or their role).īut one truth remains: players generally regress year to year, especially in the touchdown column, and that should help us as we build our fantasy football and best ball lineups. If a player finds paydirt at a position-high rate, he's going to have a great fantasy season even if the other stats are lagging behind. It's touchdowns that really shake up the fantasy standings (especially in standard and half-PPR leagues). Sort a fantasy football leaderboard by yardage, and you'll see a pretty tight dispersal overall. Touchdowns are one of the major components of fantasy football, and I don't mean just that they are one of only a few ways to generate fantasy points.
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